We’ve seen multiple threads created with the topic of the Ranking System in Gears of War 4. Decided to create a primary thread to discuss this.
TC’s current response on the Ranking System:
We are evaluating the impact of wins vs losses for future Seasons from a design perspective.
From a technical standpoint, the system is working as intended.
Full Explanation of the Ranking System, and results from the previous investigation can be found at: HERE
Our team has spent the past week diving into a metric ton of detail and data – from individual player reports to bigger picture comparisons of our entire playerbase. Here’s just some of the aspects we investigated:
- Comparisons in Rank Gains / Losses between the past week and 5 other comparable weeks in Season 3
- Breakdowns by audience skill percentile to determine if this was impacting a certain segment of the skill curve
- Breakdowns per playlist to determine if there was anomalous behavior in a certain playlist
- Reports into the potential of users erroneously getting placed in lower tiers
- Individual user reports, especially those involving significant Tier or Ranked Losses
Thank you so much for your patience as we took the time to comprehensively investigate these reports with the level of attention they deserved.
Results of the Investigation
After a week of thorough investigation, the conclusion is that our Ranking System is working as intended. The extensive data research we’ve conducted across a variety of factors shows no abnormal or unexpected behavior in the system.
Through the investigation, we’ve identified factors at play that cause the seemingly odd player-facing behavior of winning a match only to see your Rank progress drop (more on that in a second). We absolutely recognize that this is a confusing experience for our players, and it’s something we’re thinking about how we can improve moving forward.
So why can my Rank drop significantly?
In the player reports we investigated (thank you to everyone who passed along your Gamertag), along with wider data research, we discovered two key factors in significant drops:
- At the beginning of each match, both team’s Skill Ratings are used to determine the likelihood of you winning or losing the match. This is then combined with individual factors that take into account if you are in a Squad, the size of that Squad, and how many Squads are on the other team.
For example, if you are a team of 5 going up against a team of individuals with equal Skill Ratings, the team of 5 will almost certainly have a higher ‘odds to win’ in the calculation.
The big gains and losses occur when the system is defied. If you lose a match you are expected to win, the impact will be much bigger than losing a match you are expected to lose – and vice versa.
In all of the user reports we investigated that involved major drops, the player was predicted with a significantly high chance of a win (one was even as high as 97%) and lost. In these situations, which the system determines are almost certainly a win, you can see a major drop in your Skill Rating (and therefore your Rank Progress or Tier).
- Season 3 is also the first time we’ve instituted multiple Diamond Rankings which has resulted in more fluctuations at the highest level.
With the tight Skill Ratings and small top percentile of players that make up Diamond, combined with the fact only a set number of players can be in a select Diamond tier at one time, this is even more noticeable for our best players. This also includes the potential to be de-ranked to Onyx. In previous seasons, once a player was in Diamond there was no visual indication of how they compared against other players so any rank changes were not noticeable.
Why did I drop when I won a match?
This was a concerning report for us to receive but one that we’ve been able to explain through this investigation.
Your Tier Progress is not reflected instantly in all cases after the completion of a match - this can be as long as 2 hours after completion. This can cause the impact of a significant loss to be seen immediately after a win, hence the reports we received. If the win was not a significant odds-defying win, the net result can be a regression in your progress rather than progression.
We’ll continue to monitor any new reports that fall outside the explanations of our conclusion. If you’ve experienced any of the following cases, please tweet @CoalitionGears with info:
- You won 5+ matches in a row but continued to de-rank throughout
- You de-ranked fast from Onyx 2 to Gold 3, Gold 2 to Silver 3 or Silver 2 to Bronze 3
Please feel free discuss this topic on this thread, and provide any Feedback of the Ranking System.