Info: Horde modifier sets and their frequencies

I looked at this briefly today and I think maps occur a bit too infrequently to draw too many conclusions with “only” ~9 months. Since Ultra Power Drain has only appeared 5 times total, for example, the fact that it’s only been on 5 maps (Atrium, Clocktower, Forge, Harbor, and Nexus) doesn’t say much about the other 32 maps in my opinion.

Good point. It reminds me that my quick list of modifier frequencies was too hurried and was double-counting More Health/More Lethal when they appeared twice. It was supposed to be interpretable as “the percentage of times the modifier has ever appeared in a daily”, so the true numbers should have been:
2. More Health (81.8%)
3. More Lethal (79.1%)


Three other mostly pointless observations I’ve now made about the limited modifier sets…

One. The final Master-only modifier is Survivor for 13/19 sets, Power Drain and Regen Penalty for 2 each, and Regeneration and Execution Rules for 1 each. FWIW, I agree with others that Survivor/Iron Man should be a separate configurable knob (and that hosted lobbies should be able to pick and choose modifiers generally).

Two. You couldn’t have ever experienced the following 24 modifiers if you only played Advanced public matchmaking matches:

  1. Close Range Gambit
  2. Double Headshot Damage
  3. Execution Rules
  4. Frag Rejects
  5. Freezing Grenadiers
  6. Freezing Sniper Bullets
  7. Ghost Flushers
  8. Ghost Heavies
  9. Healing Heavies
  10. Increased Accuracy
  11. Instant Reload
  12. Long Range Gambit
  13. Poison Drones
  14. Power Drain
  15. Regen Penalty
  16. Regeneration
  17. Shock Grenadiers
  18. Shock Snipers
  19. Super Charged
  20. Super Energy
  21. Triple Melee Damage
  22. Ultra Stopping Power (Allies)
  23. Vampire
  24. Vampiric Drones

Three. If you only have time to play on weekends, as defined by being after the daily changeovers happening on a “Saturday” and “Sunday” (night) in typical North/South American and European time zones, then you could never have been able to play the following two sets this year (though note there were gaps in the data):

  1. Shielded Grenadiers, More Health, Aggressive Enemies, More Lethal, Vampiric Drones, Survivor, Power Drain
  2. Ultra Power Drain, More Lethal, Ultra Slow Recharge, More Health, Instant Reload, Regen Penalty, Survivor

Aussie/Kiwi weekend-warriors actually have the advantage here for once, since these sets have appeared on at least one “Friday”, so it would presumably better align with your times (or obviously anyone else playing before the changeover on those days). :slight_smile:

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I simply even the odds, my boy.

Someone has to do it. I take no pleasure in it.

…alright that was a lie. I love it.

More useless factoids for anyone awaiting particular sets or trying to spot patterns…

Days since a modifier set’s last occurrence compared to historical values:

  1. More Lethal, Ultra Stopping Power (Enemies), More Health, Aggressive Enemies, Ultra Stopping Power (Allies), Survivor, Regen Penalty: Days since last = 40, historical min = 8, median = 12, max = 120
  2. More Lethal, Freezing Rifles, More Health, Ghost Flushers, Increased Accuracy, Shock Snipers, Survivor: Days since last = 39, historical min = 1, median = 13, max = 28
  3. Shielded Grenadiers, More Health, Aggressive Enemies, More Lethal, Vampiric Drones, Survivor, Power Drain: Days since last = 34, historical min = 18, median = 48, max = 68
  4. Ultra Power Drain, More Lethal, Ultra Slow Recharge, More Health, Instant Reload, Regen Penalty, Survivor: Days since last = 31, historical min = 6, median = 12, max = 140
  5. Confetti Headshot, Even Tougher Enemies, Power Boost, More Lethal, Vampire, More Lethal, Survivor: Days since last = 25, historical min = 6, median = 20, max = 47
  6. More Lethal, Ghost Drones, More Health, Freezing Grenadiers, Aggressive Enemies, Ghost Heavies, Survivor: Days since last = 18, historical min = 1, median = 15, max = 38
  7. Reduced Heavy Damage, More Lethal, Reduced Explosive Damage, Regen Penalty, Triple Melee Damage, Execution Rules, Survivor: Days since last = 17, historical min = 4, median = 18.5, max = 60
  8. Reduced Bleeding Damage, Survivor, Reduced Explosive Damage, Regen Penalty, Double Headshot Damage, Regeneration, Power Drain: Days since last = 15, historical min = 1, median = 7.5, max = 55
  9. Confetti Headshot, Even Stronger Enemies, Zero Gravity Gore, More Health, Super Charged, More Health, Survivor: Days since last = 13, historical min = 1, median = 4, max = 61
  10. Freezing Rifles, More Lethal, Shielded Heavies, More Health, Frag Rejects, Survivor, Regeneration: Days since last = 10, historical min = 1, median = 8, max = 60
  11. Poison Flushers, More Melee Damage, More Health, Close Range Gambit, More Lethal, Poison Drones, Survivor: Days since last = 9, historical min = 2, median = 13.5, max = 61
  12. Heads Up, More Lethal, Triple Headshot Damage, More Health, Confetti Headshot, Increased Accuracy, Survivor: Days since last = 8, historical min = 3, median = 11.5, max = 80
  13. More Lethal, Vampiric Enemies, More Health, Only Regen In Cover, Vampire, Survivor, Regen Penalty: Days since last = 7, historical min = 4, median = 10, max = 92
  14. Only Regen In Cover, More Lethal, Must Active Reload, More Health, Bobble Head Enemies, Regeneration, Survivor: Days since last = 5, historical min = 1, median = 17, max = 42
  15. Bobble Head Enemies, Even Stronger Enemies, Zero Gravity Gore, More Health, Confetti Headshot, More Health, Survivor: Days since last = 4, historical min = 1, median = 6, max = 35
  16. Aggressive Enemies, More Lethal, More Melee Damage, More Health, Ghost Flushers, Super Energy, Survivor: Days since last = 3, historical min = 4, median = 11, max = 58
  17. More Lethal, Shock Rifle Drones, More Health, Shock Grenadiers, Vampiric Drones, Freezing Sniper Bullets, Survivor: Days since last = 2, historical min = 2, median = 10.5, max = 60
  18. Ghost Enemies, More Health, Reflective Shell Heavies, Long Range Gambit, More Lethal, Freezing Sniper Bullets, Survivor: Days since last = 1, historical min = 3, median = 18, max = 79
  19. Poison Flushers, Survivor, Reflective Shell Grenadiers, More Lethal, Healing Heavies, Power Drain, Execution Rules: Days since last = 0, historical min = 4, median = 13, max = 82

And for those who dislike certain classes of modifiers for what they do to gameplay:

  • Damage reduction (Reduced * Damage, * Range Gambit, Heads Up): Days since last = 1, historical min = 1, median = 3, max = 16
  • Freezing *: Days since last = 1, historical min = 1, median = 3, max = 12
  • Healing Heavies or Regeneration: Days since last = 0, historical min = 1, median = 3, max = 28
  • Ghost *: Days since last = 1, historical min = 1, median = 2.5, max = 15
  • Poison *: Days since last = 0, historical min = 1, median = 9.5, max = 39
  • Reflective Shell *: Days since last = 0, historical min = 1, median = 13.5, max = 65
  • Shielded *: Days since last = 10, historical min = 1, median = 7.5, max = 36
  • Shock *: Days since last = 2, historical min = 1, median = 6.5, max = 26
  • Vampiric *: Days since last = 2, historical min = 1, median = 4, max = 40
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So after digging through the forums collecting all the mutator sets for every day this year, I’ve organized them and tried to find any patterns of certain mutators / sets appearing on certain maps. Here is what I found. BTW “None” means that all the mutator sets were unique - there’s no duplicates for that map.

Most Common Mutator Set
Abyss - 2x - Freezing Rifles/Shielded Heavies

Allfathers Arena - None
Asylum - None
Atrium - None
Blood Drive - None

Bunker - 2x - Even Stronger Enemies/Super Charged

Canals - None

Checkout - 2x - Only Regen in Cover/Must Active Reload

Clocktower - 2x - Only Regen in Cover/Must Active Reload
2x - Ghost Drones/Ghost Heavies/Freezing Grenadiers

Command - None

Dam - 2x - Reduced Heavy Damage/Reduced Explosive Damage/Super Charged

District - None
Ephyra - None

Exhibit - 2x - Heads Up/Triple Headshot Damage

Forge - None

Foundation - 2x - Even Stronger Enemies/ Confetti Headshot
2x - Ghost Drones/Freezing Grenadiers/Ghost Heavies

Gridlock - 2x — Even Stronger Enemies/Super Charged

Harbor - 2x — Poison Flushers/Reflective Shell Grenadiers/Healing Heavies

Icebound - None
Lift - None
Mercy - None
Nexus - None
Overload - None

Pahanu - 2x — Shock Rifle Drones/Shock Grenadiers/Freezing Sniper Bullets

Rail Line - 2x — Poison Flushers/Close Range Gambit/Poison Drones
2x — Only Regen in Cover/Must Active Reload

Reactor - 2x — Reduced Bleeding Damage/Reduced Explosive Damage/Double Headshot Damage

Reclaimed - 2x — Heads Up/Triple Headshot Damage
2x — Reduced Bleeding Damage/Reduced Explosive Damage/Double Headshot Damage

Regency - None
Ritual - None
RIver - None

Speyer - 2x — Even Stronger Enemies/Confetti Headshot
2x — Poison Flushers/Close Range Gambit/Poison Drones

Tomb - 2x — Confetti Headshot/Even Tougher Enemies/Power Boost/Vampire

Training Grounds - 3x — Aggressive Enemies/Ghost Flushers/Super Energy

Turbine - 2x — Reduced Bleeding Damage/Reduced Explosive Damage/Double Headshot Damage

Vasgar - 2x — Aggressive Enemies/Ghost Flushers/Super Energy

Village - 2x — Even Stronger Enemies/Confetti Headshot
2x — Heads Up/Triple Headshot Damage


Do with that information whatever you will lol. I don’t think there really is much correlation between mutator sets and which maps they appear on. You’re just more likely to get a duplicate set on a map that’s appeared more often - Clocktower, Rail Line (10x).

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Most Frequent “Unique” Mutators on Each Map

In this definition “unique” means any mutator that isn’t literally on a ton of dailies - ex: More Health, More Lethal, Regen Penalty, Regeneration, Confetti Headshot, Zero Gravity Gore…etc

As you can see there’s some patterns (like Dawn having Super Charged 3x, Training Grounds having Super Energy 3x) but mostly randomness here.

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Mostly randomness, but still interesting to me lol. Thank you sir!

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More data mining I was reminded to post when we got the Heads Up-based modifier set two days in a row this week…

Going back a full year from today (aside from the missed posts for the dailies, and treating older modifier difficulty arrangements from last year like they appear currently), daily repeats seem to be somewhat rare. With 19 modifier sets, if distribution were perfectly random then the chance of getting any specific set should be ~5.26%, and twice in a row ~0.28%, but for any of the 19 I think that’s still ~5.26%.

It seems like it happened 14/335 possible days, or ~4.18%. Without dredging up real statistical analysis/classes I tried to forget, that doesn’t seem entirely out of line, but maybe somebody will apply more rigor.

Modifier set Total frequency Times two days in a row Times in next 1-7 days
1. Heads Up, More Lethal, Triple Headshot Damage, More Health, Confetti Headshot, Increased Accuracy, Survivor 28/349 (8.02%) 2/28 (7.14%) 13/181 (7.18%)
2. Aggressive Enemies, More Lethal, More Melee Damage, More Health, Ghost Flushers, Super Energy, Survivor 26/349 (7.45%) 0/26 (0.00%) 10/169 (5.92%)
3. Only Regen In Cover, More Lethal, Must Active Reload, More Health, Bobble Head Enemies, Regeneration, Survivor 25/349 (7.16%) 1/25 (4.00%) 9/170 (5.29%)
4. Poison Flushers, More Melee Damage, More Health, Close Range Gambit, More Lethal, Poison Drones, Survivor 25/349 (7.16%) 2/23 (8.70%) 14/163 (8.59%)
5. Bobble Head Enemies, Even Stronger Enemies, Zero Gravity Gore, More Health, Confetti Headshot, More Health, Survivor 23/349 (6.59%) 1/22 (4.55%) 12/154 (7.79%)
6. More Lethal, Shock Rifle Drones, More Health, Shock Grenadiers, Vampiric Drones, Freezing Sniper Bullets, Survivor 20/349 (5.73%) 0/20 (0.00%) 7/136 (5.15%)
7. Confetti Headshot, Even Stronger Enemies, Zero Gravity Gore, More Health, Super Charged, More Health, Survivor 19/349 (5.44%) 3/18 (16.70%) 12/130 (9.23%)
8. Freezing Rifles, More Lethal, Shielded Heavies, More Health, Frag Rejects, Survivor, Regeneration 19/349 (5.44%) 1/19 (5.26%) 6/127 (4.72%)
9. Reduced Bleeding Damage, Survivor, Reduced Explosive Damage, Regen Penalty, Double Headshot Damage, Regeneration, Power Drain 19/349 (5.44%) 1/18 (5.56%) 8/125 (6.40%)
10. More Lethal, Freezing Rifles, More Health, Ghost Flushers, Increased Accuracy, Shock Snipers, Survivor 18/349 (5.16%) 1/16 (6.25%) 8/124 (6.45%)
11. More Lethal, Ghost Drones, More Health, Freezing Grenadiers, Aggressive Enemies, Ghost Heavies, Survivor 18/349 (5.16%) 1/15 (6.67%) 3/122 (2.46%)
12. More Lethal, Vampiric Enemies, More Health, Only Regen In Cover, Vampire, Survivor, Regen Penalty 16/349 (4.58%) 0/16 (0.00%) 2/107 (1.87%)
13. Confetti Headshot, Even Tougher Enemies, Power Boost, More Lethal, Vampire, More Lethal, Survivor 15/349 (4.30%) 0/14 (0.00%) 1/ 95 (1.05%)
14. More Lethal, Ultra Stopping Power (Enemies), More Health, Aggressive Enemies, Ultra Stopping Power (Allies), Survivor, Regen Penalty 15/349 (4.30%) 0/14 (0.00%) 1/102 (0.98%)
15. Reduced Heavy Damage, More Lethal, Reduced Explosive Damage, Regen Penalty, Triple Melee Damage, Execution Rules, Survivor 15/349 (4.30%) 0/15 (0.00%) 1/ 94 (1.06%)
16. Poison Flushers, Survivor, Reflective Shell Grenadiers, More Lethal, Healing Heavies, Power Drain, Execution Rules 13/349 (3.72%) 0/12 (0.00%) 2/ 82 (2.44%)
17. Ultra Power Drain, More Lethal, Ultra Slow Recharge, More Health, Instant Reload, Regen Penalty, Survivor 13/349 (3.72%) 0/12 (0.00%) 7/ 83 (8.43%)
18. Ghost Enemies, More Health, Reflective Shell Heavies, Long Range Gambit, More Lethal, Freezing Sniper Bullets, Survivor 11/349 (3.15%) 0/11 (0.00%) 2/ 75 (2.67%)
19. Shielded Grenadiers, More Health, Aggressive Enemies, More Lethal, Vampiric Drones, Survivor, Power Drain 11/349 (3.15%) 1/11 (9.09%) 1/ 74 (1.35%)
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